2026 is shaping up to be an extraordinary year for the global box office. Following a mixed but impressive 2025, which saw major hits like A Minecraft Movie, Superman, and Jurassic World Rebirth, the upcoming year promises blockbuster releases from some of the most beloved franchises and visionary filmmakers. With several films eyeing the coveted $1 billion mark in worldwide earnings, let’s dive into the top 10 movies scheduled for 2026 ranked by their likelihood of breaking that milestone.
Dune: Part 3 – 25% Likelihood
Denis Villeneuve returns with Dune: Part 3, concluding his ambitious adaptation of Frank Herbert’s classic sci-fi saga. Following the success of Dune (2021), which grossed $429.5 million despite streaming competition, and the theatrical-exclusive Part 2 earning $714.8 million, expectations are high for the third installment.
However, the source material, Dune: Messiah, veers into darker and more complex territory that might not appeal broadly. Although Villeneuve is likely to streamline the narrative for wider audiences, the film may lack the action spectacle to push it to $1 billion. Still, a dedicated fan base and positive critical reception could drive substantial box office numbers.
Minions 3 – 30% Likelihood
The beloved Minions franchise, part of the highest-grossing animated series ever, continues with Minions 3. Having previously crossed the $1 billion threshold with both Minions (2015) and Despicable Me 3 (2017), the yellow troublemakers remain a box office staple.
Despite recent films like Minions: The Rise of Gru and Despicable Me 4 making over $900 million but falling short of $1 billion, Minions 3 is poised to continue their success, particularly with young audiences—though it might just miss the billion-dollar club.
Michael – 38% Likelihood
The musical biopic Michael explores the life of pop icon Michael Jackson. While biopics vary in box office success, Bohemian Rhapsody set a high bar with $910 million in global revenue.
With its theatrical focus and the enduring popularity of Jackson’s music, the film offers audiences an immersive experience. However, controversies surrounding Jackson’s legacy may impact the film’s broader appeal, creating uncertainty in reaching the $1 billion mark.
The Mandalorian and Grogu – 42% Likelihood
Star Wars returns to theaters with The Mandalorian and Grogu, transitioning popular Disney+ characters to the big screen. Star Wars has a stellar box office record, with several entries surpassing $1 billion.
The key challenge lies in appealing to casual moviegoers unfamiliar with the Disney+ show. Yet, Grogu’s widespread popularity could help push this film over the $1 billion threshold.
The Odyssey – 56% Likelihood
Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is an ambitious adaptation of Homer’s Greek epic, starring a star-studded cast including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, and Zendaya. Known for his cinematic prowess, Nolan’s films often draw large audiences seeking immersive experiences.
Advanced ticket sales for 70mm IMAX screenings signal strong anticipation, and Nolan’s track record of billion-dollar hits like The Dark Knight series and Oppenheimer makes The Odyssey a serious contender for the billion-dollar club.
Moana – 78% Likelihood
Disney’s live-action Moana remake benefits from the original’s enduring popularity, topping streaming charts in 2023 and 2024. After Moana 2 grossed over $1 billion, expectations are high for this new theatrical version.
While some Disney live-action remakes have had mixed box office results, Moana’s cultural impact and fresh theatrical treatment give it a strong shot at joining the billion-dollar list in 2026.
Toy Story 5 – 86% Likelihood
Toy Story 5 continues the beloved franchise that made history when Toy Story 3 was the first animated film to exceed $1 billion worldwide. Toy Story 4 also reached this milestone, surpassing its predecessor’s earnings.
This upcoming sequel is highly anticipated and likely to be a major hit, although it faces competition from Minions 3 releasing just weeks later. Still, Pixar’s appeal and the franchise’s established fan base make it a strong contender.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – 90% Likelihood
Building on the tremendous success of 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which earned $1.36 billion globally, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie promises to take audiences to new worlds inspired by the popular galaxy-themed video games.
With the addition of fan-favorite characters like Yoshi, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr., this sequel is expected to easily cross the $1 billion mark, potentially surpassing the first film’s success.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day – 90% Likelihood
Spider-Man remains the highest-grossing superhero at the box office, and Tom Holland’s next solo outing is highly anticipated after the massive success of No Way Home, which made $1.9 billion worldwide.
Brand New Day may not feature the multi-Spidey crossover of its predecessor, but the inclusion of characters like Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher boosts excitement and box office potential.
Avengers: Doomsday – 90% Likelihood
The MCU’s Avengers: Doomsday is shaping up to be the biggest blockbuster of 2026. Despite some recent box office fluctuations in the MCU, crossover films bring in massive audiences, and the inclusion of five teams — The Avengers, Thunderbolts, Fantastic Four, Wakandans, and X-Men — promises a multiversal spectacle.
The return of Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom and Chris Evans as Steve Rogers adds star power that could make Doomsday the highest-grossing film of the year, potentially eclipsing even Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame.
Conclusion
2026 is poised to be a monumental year for cinema, with multiple films across genres and franchises vying for the coveted $1 billion mark. From the thrilling cosmic adventure of Avengers: Doomsday to the nostalgic magic of Toy Story 5 and the cinematic grandeur of The Odyssey, audiences worldwide have much to look forward to. Whether you are a fan of superhero epics, animated family favorites, or auteur-driven historical dramas, the box office in 2026 promises record-breaking excitement. Share your thoughts in the comments and explore more at keeperfacts.com.
