UPDATE: As of November 16, 2025, the domestic box office battle between two highly anticipated releases, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (Now You See Me 3) and The Running Man, has taken a clear turn. The third installment in the stage magic-themed heist franchise, Now You See Me 3, is projected to open at number one, surpassing The Running Man, a new cinematic adaptation of the 1982 Stephen King novel.
Box Office Battle: Now You See Me 3 Pulls Ahead
Initially, both films were expected to debut with similar earnings, each just over $20 million domestically. However, latest projections show Now You See Me: Now You Don’t leading strongly with a 3-day total of $21.3 million at the domestic box office. Meanwhile, The Running Man trails behind, expected to debut with $17 million. This considerable lead for Now You See Me 3 marks a significant moment in the weekend box office competition that was previously neck-and-neck.
Factors Behind Now You See Me 3’s Success
One of the major advantages of Now You See Me: Now You Don’t is its PG-13 rating, which unlocks access to a broader audience segment, including younger viewers and families. On the other hand, The Running Man carries an R rating, which limits its audience reach despite its intriguing Edgar Wright direction and a fresh 65% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
Critically, although The Running Man has a higher Rotten Tomatoes critic score of 65% compared to Now You See Me: Now You Don’t’s 59%, the audience review scores tell a different story. Now You See Me 3 boasts a strong 80% score on Popcornmeter, reflecting higher satisfaction from verified viewers.
Budget Considerations and Financial Outlook
Budget plays a crucial role in box office success and break-even points. The Running Man has a hefty reported budget of $110 million, translating to a high break-even target estimated around $275 million considering the typical 2.5x theatrical earnings rule for tentpole films.
In contrast, Now You See Me 3 benefits from a more moderate budget of $90 million, with an estimated break-even point near $225 million. This financial flexibility gives Now You See Me 3 a better chance of profitability even if its opening weekend is modest.
Weekend Box Office Top 5 Breakdown
The top five titles at the domestic box office this weekend are as follows:
- Now You See Me: Now You Don’t – $21.3 million (weekend 1)
- The Running Man – $17 million (weekend 1)
- Predator: Badlands – $12 million (weekend 2, cumulative $66.3 million)
- Regretting You – $4 million (weekend 4, cumulative $44.9 million)
- Black Phone 2 – $2.6 million (weekend 5, cumulative $74.7 million)
With Now You See Me 3 and The Running Man grabbing first and second place respectively, the previous weekend’s top performers have slid down the ranks. Notably, Predator: Badlands slipped 67.5%, while romantic drama Regretting You continues to hold a slow but steady course and Black Phone 2 has dropped 50% in its fifth weekend.
Challenges Ahead for Both Films
Even though Now You See Me 3 currently holds the lead, both films face considerable challenges to extend their box office runs. Neither movie’s opening weekend performance is robust enough to assure blockbuster success. This is especially true given their numbers come in significantly below the $33.2 million debut of Disney’s Tron: Ares, a major 2025 release that underperformed relative to expectations.
Moreover, with the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, both films will soon face intense competition from upcoming tentpole releases such as Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2. These blockbusters are expected to dominate audience attention and theater screens during the peak holiday moviegoing season.
Looking Forward: What To Expect
The evolving box office landscape as the holiday season progresses means that sustained success for Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and The Running Man will require strong word-of-mouth and audience retention. Additionally, the December releases of major blockbusters like Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash will add further pressure to maintain footholds in theaters.
It’s also worth noting the performance of other new releases such as the horror film Keeper by director Osgood Perkins, which is projected to debut at No. 7 with $2.5 million, a significant drop compared to Perkins’ earlier successes this year.
Conclusion
To sum up, the weekend box office snapshot clearly shows Now You See Me: Now You Don’t pulling ahead in a competitive race against The Running Man. Its broader audience appeal, lower budget, and positive audience reception have contributed to this early lead. However, both films need to build momentum and withstand heavy competition during the holiday season to secure long-term box office success.
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